Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of today’s latest school absence data from the Department for Education has uncovered that:
- Severe absence has hit new record levels for an Autumn term, with 147,605 severely absent pupils in Autumn 2024 – up 3.6 per cent on the previous Autumn term.
- Persistent absence has fallen (by 8.8 per cent on the previous Autumn term), but progress is slow with still 1,284,005 children persistently absent in Autumn 2024 – almost 40 per cent higher than Autumn 2019.
- Children on FSM are nearly four times more likely to be severely absent than their peers, while those with an Education, Health and Care (EHC) plan are seven times more likely
The think tank found that rising school absence is contributing to the nation’s economic woes by putting thousands of pupils on a path to worklessness and welfare dependency.
CSJ analysis suggests that, without urgent action, almost 180,000 pupils will leave school to become NEETs (not in education, employment or training) due to persistent absence over the course of this Parliament. This is almost twice as many as if absence had returned to its pre-pandemic level, leaving an estimated lifetime cost to the taxpayer of £14 billion.
Severe absence is typically at lower levels during the Autumn term. While severe absence in Autumn 2024 was lower than the record high of 172,938 seen in Summer 2023, the trend remains on an alarmingly upwards trajectory (see Figure 1).
Beth Prescott, Education Lead at the CSJ, said:
“Five years on from school closures, classroom absences can no longer be viewed as a post-pandemic blip. The material risk now is that this issue is becoming deeply entrenched.
“This is not just an educational problem. It is sending a bow wave of harm through our economy, driving more young people towards a life of wasted potential and benefit dependency.
“Ministers must now build on the progress they have made and work with local charities and families to provide more absent pupils with the mentorship they need to return to school. But with the crisis deepening we need to attack the root causes of school absence, including softening parental attitudes to attendance and an education system that fails to engage thousands of young people.”
Ali Wheeler, CEO WeMindTheGap:
“We’re not surprised by these figures. We work with amazing young people every day who are affected by not only the pace, structure and pressure of the school environment, but are also dealing with significant other challenges outside of school which are impacting attendance.
We say it takes a village to raise a child, but a system to mind their gaps. We must work together to understand the gaps, the system of support and most importantly, ensure every young person has the opportunity to live, learn and thrive”.
Figure 1: Severe absence termly figures (Source: CSJ analysis of DfE data, 2025)
A CSJ spokesperson is available for interview.
Notes to Editors
The CSJ’s latest School Absence Tracker will be available here by 5pm.
Methodology: The Autumn term 2024 absence data presented here is available on theDepartment for Education website. The CSJ’s analysis and estimates of the risks of additional NEET school leavers are based on DfE school population and persistent absence data, as well as a Leeds Institute for Data Analytics study on the link between school absence and becoming NEET. A range of factors are involved in shaping employment and educational outcomes, but school absence is strongly linked to a range of negative outcomes controlling for a range of other disadvantages. A cohort study of 23,000 pupils by the Leeds Institute for Data Analytics found that 19 per cent of persistently absent pupils became persistently NEET aged 16-18. The CSJ used the DfE’s annualised pupil headcount projections to estimate 2024/25-2028/29 secondary school leavers, then applied the persistently NEET rate from the Leeds Institute study to the school population projections for Year 11s, comparing a scenario which assumes the rate of persistent absence to remain at its elevated level (29.2 per cent) vs a scenario where absence returns to its pre-pandemic level (16.2 per cent). This suggests there could be 175,000 persistently NEET 16-18 year olds due to persistent absence between 2024/25 and 2028/29 – almost 80,000 more than had absence at its pre-pandemic level.
A study by Public Health England found that each 16-18 who spends some NEET will cost an average of £77,550 (uprated to 2025 prices) over the course of the life in public finance costs, totalling £14 billion from absence-related NEETs this parliament.
In September, the Centre for Social Justice will publish a major report on the increasingly entrenched absence crisis, outlining a comprehensive plan for reform. To be kept updated about this research, please sign up to our mailing list by clicking here and scrolling to the form at the bottom of the page.
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